COVID-19

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https://ela.kpi.ua/handle/123456789/40969

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Перегляд COVID-19 за Автор "Babakov, Mykhaylo"

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    New mathematical models of the spread of viral infections
    (КПІ ім. Ігоря Сікорського, 2023) Lutsenko, Vladislav; Luo, Yiyang; Visotska, Olena; Lutsenko, Iryna; Krivenko, Olena; Babakov, Mykhaylo; Klymenko, Viktoriia; Popova, Kira; Nguyen, Xuan Anh
    The subject and purpose of the work - the COVID-19 pandemic - has so far affected almost all countries of the world and sharply reminded of the need for further research on many aspects of viruses. An attempt to use classical approaches to describe the mechanisms of transmission and spread of this infection and the related methods of carrying out sanitary and preventive measures turned out to be ineffective. Nowadays, the creation of models of new viral infection has acquired particular relevance, allowing one to explain the features of its course observed in practice and to propose a mathematical description of the mechanism of its spread. Methods and methodology of work. The theory of probability and mathematical statistics, numerical modeling tools for solving systems of ordinary differential equations describing the spread of a viral infection are used. Results of work. A lego model for describing the structure of a compound viral infection is proposed, which makes it possible to explain the possibility of recurrent disease and the presence of several waves of it. Estimates of the probability of disease and mortality from the number of fragments of lego infection were obtained. The need to comply with special sanitary and hygienic measures to reduce the likelihood of severe disease and mortality is indicated. Using compartment models, a system of equations has been proposed to describe the dynamics of the spread of a new coronavirus infection COVID-19, which takes into account the presence of the latent period of infection, as well as the possibility of additional infection in a medical institution.