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Документ Відкритий доступ Bayesian modelling of risks of various origin(КПІ ім. Ігоря Сікорського, 2021) Kuznietsova, N. V.; Trofymchuk, O. M.; Bidyuk, P. I.; Terentiev, O. M.; Levenchuk, L. B.Background. Financial as well as many other types of risks are inherent to all types of human activities. The problem is to construct adequate mathematical description for the formal representation of risks selected and to use it for possible loss estimation and forecasting. The loss estimation can be based upon processing available data and relevant expert estimates characterizing history and current state of the processes considered. An appropriate instrumentation for modelling and estimating risks of possible losses provides probabilistic approach including Bayesian techniques known today as Bayesian programming methodology. Objective. The purpose of the paper is to perform overview of some Bayesian data processing methods providing a possibility for constructing models of financial risks selected. To use statistical data to develop a new model of Bayesian type so that to describe formally operational risk that can occur in the information processing procedures. Methods. The methods used for data processing and model constructing refer to Bayesian programming methodology. Also Bayes theorem was directly applied to operational risk assessment in its formulation for discrete events and discrete parameters. Results. The proposed approach to modelling was applied to building a model of operational risk associated with incorrect information processing. To construct and apply the model to risk estimation the risk problem was analysed, appropriate variables were selected, and prior conditional probabilities were estimated. Functioning of the models con structed was demonstrated with illustrative examples. Conclusions. Modelling and estimating financial and other type of risks is important practical problem that can be solved using the methodology of Bayesian programming providing the possibility for identification and taking into consideration uncertainties of data and expert estimates. The risk model constructed with the methodology proposed illustrates the possibilities of applying the Bayesian methods to solving the risk estimation problems.Документ Відкритий доступ Dynamic certification and assessment of the buildings life cycle under regular explosive impacts(КПІ ім. Ігоря Сікорського, 2022) Trofymchuk, O. M.; Kaliukh, I. I.; Dunin, V. A.; Kyrash, S. Y.Today in Ukraine, there is no single legalized, generally accepted methodology (at the level of a Ukrainian building standard) for dynamic certification of buildings and structures. A unified approach is proposed as such a technique. It includes four components: visual inspection of buildings; experimental studies of the dynamic response of buildings or structures to explosive effects; mathematical modeling of the stress-strain state of the object under study; synthesis of the results of visual inspection; experimental studies and numerical simulation in order to generalize them systematically. As an approbation, the deterioration of the resource of reinforced concrete structures of residential buildings under the conditions of constant mass industrial explosions with a capacity of 500 to 700 tons in the quarry of Southern GZK (Mining and Processing Plant) in the city of Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, has been studied. Based on the processing of numerous experimental data and the results of mathematical modeling, a probabilistic model for predicting the deterioration of the technical condition of reinforced concrete structures of the Center for Children and Youth Creativity “Mriya” has been obtained. Calculations of the risks of destruction of the building’s load-bearing elements for its vulnerable areas made it possible to clarify its service life. It decreased by 30 years compared to the standard in 2012.Документ Відкритий доступ Short-Term Forecasting of Macroeconomic Processes with Regression and Probabilistic Models(НТУУ «КПІ», 2015) Bidyuk, P. I.; Trofymchuk, O. M.; Karayuz, I. V.; Бідюк, Петро Іванович; Трофимчук, Олександр Миколайович; Караюз, Ірина Валентинівна; Бидюк, Петр Иванович; Трофимчук, Александр Николаевич; Караюз, Ирина ВалентиновнаДокумент Відкритий доступ Systemic approach to forecasting(Київ, 2015) Bidyuk, P. I.; Trofymchuk, O. M.; Bidiuk, O. P.; Бідюк, Петро Іванович; Трофимчук, Олександр Миколайович; Бідюк, Олексій Петрович; Бидюк, Петр Иванович; Трофимчук, Александр Николаевич; Бидюк, Алексей ПетровичДокумент Відкритий доступ Апроксимація функцій для створення алгоритму опису пересіченої місцевості(НТУУ "КПІ", 2016) Трофимчук, Олександр Миколайович; Кряжич, Ольга Олександрівна; Trofymchuk, O. M.; Kryazhuch, O. O.