Analysis of factors for forecasting electric power generation by solar power plants
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Дата
2020
Науковий керівник
Назва журналу
Номер ISSN
Назва тому
Видавець
КПІ ім. Ігоря Сікорського
Анотація
The new model of the wholesale electricity market in Ukraine causes appearance the market for the day
ahead. In this market, the generating company undertakes to supply a certain amount of electricity. So, it is
necessary to carry on the most accurate forecast of possible electricity generation by solar power plant (SPP).
Generation value depends on certain factors. A brief summary of different influence of parameters on the PV cell
performance has been provided. The article analyzes and identifies the factors that should be included in the forecast
mathematical model of electricity generation by a solar power plant for a certain short-term period. According to
analyzed data from SPP located in the Kyiv region, such parameters are the intensity of solar radiation,
temperature and humidity, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure. The degree of influence of these factors on the
initial function of electric energy generation were estimated by analyzing the scatter plot diagrams of relationship
between parameters and correlation coefficients. Thus, the analysis of the influence of factors on the magnitude of
electricity generation allowed to determine the priority of including each of the parameters in the mathematical
model of the SPP power forecast. It was established that the influence of certain climate parameters for target
function is different in each season. Therefore, in the mathematical model for forecasting electric power
generation, it is necessary to take into account seasonality. In addition, the dynamic value change of factors also
affects the current magnitude of electricity generation. Moreover, at different times of the year and with different
combination of the corresponding values of climatic parameters, this effect may have different magnitudes.
Therefore, the data obtained from the last periods before the forecasting should have a greater impact on
obtaining the predicted value than the data from previous periods.
Опис
Ключові слова
forecasting, electricity generation, solar power plant, correlation matrix, intensity of solar radiation, прогнозування, генерація електричної енергії, сонячна електростанція, коренляційна матриця, інтенсивність освітлення
Бібліографічний опис
Matushkin, D. Analysis of factors for forecasting electric power generation by solar power plants / D. Matushkin, А. Bosak, L. Kulakovskyi // Енергетика: економіка, технології, екологія : науковий журнал. – 2020. – № 4 (62). – С. 64-69. – Бібліогр.: 12 назв.