Short-term electricity price forecasting of day-ahead market

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dc.contributor.advisorStrelkova, Halyna
dc.contributor.authorBatiuta, Kateryna
dc.date.accessioned2021-04-29T12:54:21Z
dc.date.available2021-04-29T12:54:21Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.description.abstractenRelevance of research. After the reforms in the domestic economy in the energy sector, new conditions were created for the functioning of the electricity market and the participation of industrial enterprises in it, which are characterized by a high degree of uncertainty and growth of various types of risks, including market risks. An example of such risks is the lack of profit; change in the cost of capital; the emergence of the impact of large transactions on market parameters; changes in market conditions; changes in fuel prices; financial and economic losses; bankruptcy; emergence of new economic agents; growth of defaults of consumers and contractors, etc. The processes of liberalization of the electricity market taking place in Ukraine have led to the following specific risks: the risk of differences between actual and contract prices when concluding long-term contracts; spot price risks; the risk of forecasting the amount of electricity consumed and electricity prices; the risk of accurate profit forecasting for large market players who are joint stock companies; risks of forecasting the load of both individual customers and customer groups. If such risks are ignored or insufficiently taken into account, the lost consequence may be a lost consequence; reduction of the size of profit in comparison with expected; reduction of investment efficiency, etc. In order to minimize the risks that may arise during the purchase and sale of electricity and improve forecasts at the system level, it is necessary to research and develop tools for short-term forecasting of the wholesale electricity price in the market "day ahead" (DAM).  In addition, price forecasting is a very important component for the development of the future development strategy of the entire electricity sector and is the basis for balanced growth of various sectors of the economy in the future. Relationship of work with scientific programs, plans, themes. The study was performed within the framework of the tasks provided by the Law of Ukraine "On the Electricity Market", as well as within the implementation of the "Energy Strategy of Ukraine until 2035" "Security, energy efficiency, competitiveness"". Purpose and tasks of the research is to conduct a criterion analysis of forecast models of wholesale electricity prices in the market "day ahead" to reduce the uncertainty of decision-making economic agents of the market and the implementation of short-term forecast of wholesale electricity prices. To achieve this goal, the following tasks were set: – study of the regulatory framework of Ukraine on the procedure for determining the price of electricity and the volume of purchase and sale of electricity at DAM; – research of the existing methodology and methods of forecast models of formation of the wholesale price of the electric power on DAM; – identification of open sources and formation of a database of wholesale price statistics in the DAM electricity market segment; – study of the European experience concerning innovative approaches on overcoming obstacles of functioning of DAM in the conditions of liberalization. Object of research is short-term forecasting of electricity prices. Subject of research methodologies and methods of forecast models of wholesale electricity price formation. Practical value of the results. The mathematical model of the wholesale price of electricity based on the Random Forest method allows to obtain information about the short-term forecast of the future price of electricity in the market "for the day ahead". The obtained results make it possible to minimize the risks when buying and selling electricity, show a more accurate and easier way to make pricing decisions in a competitive electricity market, analyzing all the factors for the formation of the pricing process. The proposed product incremental innovation in forecasting services allows end consumers to build more accurate short-term forecasts of price changes in the market "day ahead". Scientific novelty of the obtained results. Based on the study, it was determined that in the context of reforming the energy sector of Ukraine and the introduction of a competitive electricity market, the following proposals for innovative developments can be provided. A promising innovation direction is the introduction of incremental (improving) product innovations in the field of digital technologies and application software. For electricity market participants, the most attractive are innovative solutions for the provision of services using software for forecasting the wholesale price of electricity at DAM.uk
dc.format.page112 с.uk
dc.identifier.citationBatiuta, K. Short-term electricity price forecasting of day-ahead market : master’s thesis : 141 Electric power, Electrical Engineering and Electromechanics / Kateryna Batiuta. – Kyiv, 2020. – 112 p.uk
dc.identifier.urihttps://ela.kpi.ua/handle/123456789/40842
dc.language.isoenuk
dc.publisherIgor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Instituteuk
dc.publisher.placeKyivuk
dc.subjectelectricityuk
dc.subjectinnovative solutionsuk
dc.subjectforecasting modelsuk
dc.subjectwholesale priceuk
dc.subjectmarket "day ahead"uk
dc.subjectprice formationuk
dc.subjecttime seguk
dc.titleShort-term electricity price forecasting of day-ahead marketuk
dc.typeMaster Thesisuk

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