Circular Economy in Post-Crisis Recovery: Closed-Loop Models as a Tool for Regional Economic Sustainability
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Дата
2026-06-20
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Видавець
Ontario International Development Agency
Анотація
The shift of economic systems towards circularity is perceived as a priority in terms of recovery from the crisis and ever more macroeconomic instability. Closed loop models are seen less as a tool of environmental reconstruction, but rather, a structural mechanism to enable economic modernisation and sustainability at large. Conversely, the quantitative estimation of the effects of circularity on broader – macroeconomic – dynamics are still meagre, especially in terms of a more comparative cross-country dimension. Our purpose with this study is to focus on the development and testing an integrated Grid-locked technique to empirically estimate the impact of circularity on the economic sustainability of the European Union, in the crisis haven, “ad virum”. Recovery path. The balanced panel comprises the EU-27 for 2015–2024 (270 country-year observations). The countries in the sample are heterogeneous in significant ways: the gap in real GDP per capita exceeds three times; the share of industry in GDP ranges from about 15–30%; the level of urbanization ranges from about 55% to more than 80%; circularity indicators show more than twofold cross-country differentiation. Together, this warrants the use of a panel model with country and time fixed effects. Our methodology proceeds on the formation of composite indices of circularity and economic resilience based on minmax normalizing indicators across the whole panel of observations and then econometrically estimating them using a fixed effects model (Stata 17.95% confidence interval, clustered robust standard errors, Hausman test for specification selection). The circularity index combines resource productivity, recycled materials use, waste recycling, environmental expenditures and the share of renewable energy; the economic sustainability index combines real GDP per capita, employment stability and investment activity. The results show a statistically significant positive correlation between the integrated circularity index and the economic resilience index for the years 2021–2024 when controlling for structural characteristics of economies (industry structure, investment, urbanization) and for timeinvariant national characteristics. The growth of the integrated circularity index relates to an increase the aggregate index of economic sustainability in the post-crisis period. There is also a tendency to reduce the cross-country variability of economic resilience in recovery phase. The significance of the study in practice is showing the feasibility of integrating circular indicators into the systemof macroeconomic monitoring and strategies for longterm structural stabilization within the European Union.
Опис
Ключові слова
agricultural business, circular economy, economic sustainability, green economy, postcrisis recovery, panel model, integral index, macroeconomic analysis, sustainable development, regions of the world
Бібліографічний опис
Circular Economy in Post-Crisis Recovery: Closed-Loop Models as a Tool for Regional Economic Sustainability / Petrukha N., Bashynska Yu., Petrukha S., Makaliuk I., Kovtunyk I. // OIDA International Journal of Sustainable Development. - 2026. - Vol. 19, № 07. - Pp. 69-78.